Let's be Frank: Don't overlook Discreet Dancer this weekend

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/23/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the top two early Kentucky Derby favorites - Union Rags (trainer Michael Matz) and Algorithms (Todd Pletcher) - lining up for Sunday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, it is easy to forget about another of Pletcher's top 3-year-olds, Discreet Dancer.

The speedy chestnut colt has not raced since Jan. 7, but his performance that day was as explosive as any other this winter. He also was able to stretch out from 5 1/2 furlongs to a one-turn mile race in winning by over five lengths.

According to Gulfstream Park's Trakus time, he completed the eight furlongs in 1:35 2/5, over a full second faster than Unbridled Minister ran the race before. That colt wound up finishing second to another one of Pletcher's stars, Spring Hill Farm, in his next start on Feb. 11.

Discreet Dancer has never been challenged while winning his two career appearances by a combined 15 1/4 lengths. He might not be able to last the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby distance, but the 1 1/16 miles of the Fountain of Youth should easily be in his wheelhouse. In addition, there doesn't seem to be other top-rated speed to run with him early on, so the son of Discreet Cat should have the lead as the field enters the homestretch.

From that point on, there is not much ground to cover since 8.5-furlong races at Gulfstream Park end at the sixteenth-pole instead of the usual finish line. This will make it difficult for the stretch runners to pick up the speed late and get the win. The first 1 1/16-mile stakes race for 3-year-old colts at Gulfstream Park was held on Jan. 1, and the horses that were first, second, third and fourth after the first six furlongs wound up finishing the race in those same positions.

The betting public might not consider that when wagering on the Fountain of Youth, especially with Union Rags making his first start of the year.

The son of Dixie Union has raced the distance just once and it proved to be his lone defeat in four career starts when Hansen held him off by a diminishing head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Since then, he has had a number of workouts at Palm Meadows, including a 48 4/5 breeze out of the gate on Feb. 19.

Union Rags has already won off a two-month layoff, as well as taking his debut last summer, so the 113-day drought should not pose too much of a problem. However, he will be taking on a slew of horses that have been in action this year and who need graded earnings to reach the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Union Rags is second on the list behind Hansen, so a win in the Fountain of Youth is not imperative.

Algorithms, Pletcher's other colt in the race, should wind up as the post-time favorite after he blew away Hansen by five lengths in the Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 29. Nevertheless, that race was run on a sloppy track and his other two starts were 6 1/2- and 5-furlong sprints. As is the case with Discreet Dancer, Algorithms has tons of talent, but the son of Bernardini has more experience against stakes-caliber horses.

Jockey Javier Castellano chose to ride Algorithms over Union Rags, but his decision is not a knock on the latter. Castellano has become a key go-to rider for Pletcher and he did not want the long list of future stakes winners to dry up had he chose to stay with Matz and Union Rags. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on Union Rags while J.R. Velasquez, who rode Animal Kingdom to last year's Kentucky Derby win, gets the mount on Discreet Dancer.

The play is Discreet Dancer to win, and on top of both Algorithms and Union Rags in the exacta

PLETCHER'S EL PADRINO HIGHLIGHTS THE RISEN STAR STAKES

El Padrino is the odds-on choice to win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday as the recent allowance winner tackles the top three finishers (and three other horses) who ran in the LeComte Stakes on Jan. 21.

The chestnut colt has yet to win a race on a fast track, and with a sunny day scheduled for Saturday in New Orleans, he will finally get the opportunity to show what he can do without the benefit of moisture on the track.

El Padrino blew away Take Charge Indy by two lengths in his last effort, but more impressive was the gap of almost 14 lengths back to Argentine Tango in third. Look for him to either win this race by at least four lengths if he can handle a fast track or get upset if he is just a slop-loving 3-year-old.

Others to watch in the Risen Star are Mr. Bowling, Z Dager, Shared Property, Mark Valeski and Afford. The first three all hit the board in the LeComte, but the winner Mr. Bowling had by far the easiest trip of the three. Look for Shared Property, despite coming out of post 10, to be the best of the three this time around.

One point to remember about the LeComte: it was an extremely slow race. Maiden 3-year-olds ran a tick faster earlier on the card, and the filly Believe You Can finished her 1 mile and 70 yards over a second faster than Mr. Bowling while taking the Silverbulletday Stakes.

Mark Valeski, a winner of his last two starts, makes his stakes debut in the Risen Star, while Afford comes into the race off a nose victory in an optional claiming allowance race on Feb. 9.

The play is El Padrino on top of Shared Property in an exacta, with slightly less money the other way, along with a small win bet on Shared Property.

TOSS LAST WEEKEND'S STAKES WINNERS OFF YOUR DERBY LIST

The two divisions of Monday's Southwest Stakes proved nothing in terms of finding a Kentucky Derby champion. Secret Circle, the more impressive of the two winners, is doubtful to improve at nine and 10 furlongs, while Castaway ran his one mile a full second slower in the race before.

Drill, the San Vicente Stakes winner, has never won a race beyond seven furlongs, and his trainer, Bob Baffert, will keep him sprinting heading into the spring.

Saturday's El Camino Real Derby was won by the Steve Asmussen-trained Daddy Nose Best and his nose was definitely needed as that was the final margin of victory over Lucky Chappy. The triumph was his first on a surface other than turf.

Remember, no winner of the El Camino Real has ever won the Kentucky Derby, although a few have had success in other Triple Crown races with Tank's Prospect and Snow Chief taking the Preakness and Tabasco Cat winning both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Two colts to keep an eye on from last week are Creative Cause and Paynter.

Despite running third in the San Vicente, Creative Cause ran his final three furlongs in 35 and change, while closing from last place after the first half mile. Remember, he was up against it as he came into the race off a layoff while shortening up in distance. Look for a much-improved effort next time out.

As for Paynter, his debut race was everything and more as he glided home by 4 1/4 lengths while running 5 1/2 furlongs in a brisk 1:02 4/5. His dam is a full-sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, and Baffert has been high on him for months.

THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"

1) Union Rags - Does not have to win the Fountain of Youth to remain on top

2) Algorithms - The same is the case for Algorithms

3) I'll Have Another - Has not worked since winning the Robert B. Lewis

4) Fed Biz - Baffert has so many 3-year-olds, it is hard to tell where they will wind up next

5) Gemologist - Same goes for Pletcher and Gemologist

6) Discreet Dancer - A dominating win on Sunday will move him way up

7) Alpha - McLaughlin awaits the Wood with his prized 3-year-old

8) Out of Bounds - Flattered by Secret Circle's win in the Southwest

9) Creative Cause - Will be a much better price in Pool 2 than 17-1

10) El Padrino - Must beat a very weak Risen Star field to stay in the Dirty Dozen

11) Hansen - Hopes to avoid a sloppy track in the Gotham on March 3

12) Empire Way - Will be a square price in the San Felipe

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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Pro Football Odds : NFC SOUTH BETTING ODDS

NFL Sports Betting

NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North. Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.

Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.

There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.

Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.

Detroit Lions (+1500) - The Lions are probably once again going to be the whipping boys for the rest of the teams in the NFC North, but they aren't just going to roll over and die once again. There is some real talent amassing on this team offensively, as the combination of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew should put a bunch of points on the board if the offensive line can even remotely hold up. The questions really lie on defense, where it feels like DT Ndamukong Suh is going to be trying to stop opposing teams all by himself. This year should show some marked improvement in the Motor City.

The Patriots will make NFL betting fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.

NFL Betting

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